Hi, great site and info, but the text runs off the screen requiring a constant readjusting by way of the horizontal slide bar. Is it possible to reformat your articles so that they better fit the screen? You appear to have important information which needs to get out to a bunch of folks, but many may not want to deal with the inconvenience of having to continually readjust their screens.
On April 22nd, 2007 Peter Yogman (not verified) says:
question:
I have seen several articles which claim a breakdown in late 20th century connection between cosmic rays and solar proxies with temperature. In addition they claim the solar proxy data was incorrect (eg. eos. vol 85 No. 39 sept. 28, 2004.)(link at http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/07/the-lure-of-solar-forcing/) Even Veizer's article at Geoscience Canada Vol. 32 No. 1 seems to indicate a recent breakdown in the relationship. The claim made by critics is that the very recent temperature rises are therefore due to co2. Do we have updated data that restores the connection. You seem to say (though it is not clear to me) that there is some difference in cosmic rays of different energy levels. Could you please help clarify the most recent data and what it means for the connection over the last 15 years or so.
Just in case the previous didn't post since I was not registered here is my question repeated.
I have seen several articles which claim a breakdown in late 20th century connection between cosmic rays and solar proxies with temperature. In addition they claim the solar proxy data was incorrect (eg. eos. vol 85 No. 39 sept. 28, 2004.)(link at http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/07/the-lure-of-solar-forcing/) Even Veizer's article at Geoscience Canada Vol. 32 No. 1 seems to indicate a recent breakdown in the relationship. The claim made by critics is that the very recent temperature rises are therefore due to co2. Do we have updated data that restores the connection? You seem to say (though it is not clear to me) that there is some difference in cosmic rays of different energy levels. Could you please help clarify the most recent data and what it means for the connection over the last 15 years or so.
The question you raised is important and not new. Given that it was asked many times, I realize that there is no point to avoid writing something serious (and technical) to show that it is not a major problem as I see it. So in fact, I started doing so (though given that I am very busy this semester, it may take a few weeks).
In short (very short):
- The sun's activity appears to have increased to about 1950, slightly decreased to the 1970's and somewhat increased until the mid 1990's. It is not clear whether the CRF increased more in the second period than the decreased after the middle of the century. (It depends on the energy and record used). This behavior should give rise to large warming, moderate cooling, moderate warming.
- Given Earth's large heat capacity, the climate's response is low pass filtered. Thus, the temperature at 2000 should be higher than the temperature in 1950 even if the increase from the 1970's is smaller than in 1950 (since the high activity of the 1990's comes after 5 decades of much higher activity than the 5 decades preceding the 1940's).
- Some of the warming from the 1970's can be anthropogenic. I never thought otherwise. A 50 ppm increase is about 1 W/m^2. For a sensitivity of 1 to 1.5 deg/(W/m2), damped to say half of it over the several decade time scale, CO2 should have contributed about a 0.15 deg increase.
Here is another critical article on the crf climate model. Do you have any comments on the critique? http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/03/cosmoclimatology-tired-old-arguments-in-new-clothes/
On November 26th, 2007 Yevgeny (not verified) says:
Dear Nir,
Unfortunately, your nice website doesn't work with Internet Explorer 7. It shows only the title and nothing else. Only now that I opened Netscape I can see it. Hope you can fix it.
Nice site. Keep it going.
Nice site. Keep it going.
Slight problem with website
Hi, great site and info, but the text runs off the screen requiring a constant readjusting by way of the horizontal slide bar. Is it possible to reformat your articles so that they better fit the screen? You appear to have important information which needs to get out to a bunch of folks, but many may not want to deal with the inconvenience of having to continually readjust their screens.
Thank you,
Tom
Climate
question:
I have seen several articles which claim a breakdown in late 20th century connection between cosmic rays and solar proxies with temperature. In addition they claim the solar proxy data was incorrect (eg. eos. vol 85 No. 39 sept. 28, 2004.)(link at http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/07/the-lure-of-solar-forcing/) Even Veizer's article at Geoscience Canada Vol. 32 No. 1 seems to indicate a recent breakdown in the relationship. The claim made by critics is that the very recent temperature rises are therefore due to co2. Do we have updated data that restores the connection. You seem to say (though it is not clear to me) that there is some difference in cosmic rays of different energy levels. Could you please help clarify the most recent data and what it means for the connection over the last 15 years or so.
Thank you for your excellent work.
Peter Yogman
climate
Just in case the previous didn't post since I was not registered here is my question repeated.
I have seen several articles which claim a breakdown in late 20th century connection between cosmic rays and solar proxies with temperature. In addition they claim the solar proxy data was incorrect (eg. eos. vol 85 No. 39 sept. 28, 2004.)(link at http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/07/the-lure-of-solar-forcing/) Even Veizer's article at Geoscience Canada Vol. 32 No. 1 seems to indicate a recent breakdown in the relationship. The claim made by critics is that the very recent temperature rises are therefore due to co2. Do we have updated data that restores the connection? You seem to say (though it is not clear to me) that there is some difference in cosmic rays of different energy levels. Could you please help clarify the most recent data and what it means for the connection over the last 15 years or so.
Thank you for your excellent work.
Peter Yogman
Dear Peter, The question
Dear Peter,
The question you raised is important and not new. Given that it was asked many times, I realize that there is no point to avoid writing something serious (and technical) to show that it is not a major problem as I see it. So in fact, I started doing so (though given that I am very busy this semester, it may take a few weeks).
In short (very short):
- The sun's activity appears to have increased to about 1950, slightly decreased to the 1970's and somewhat increased until the mid 1990's. It is not clear whether the CRF increased more in the second period than the decreased after the middle of the century. (It depends on the energy and record used). This behavior should give rise to large warming, moderate cooling, moderate warming.
- Given Earth's large heat capacity, the climate's response is low pass filtered. Thus, the temperature at 2000 should be higher than the temperature in 1950 even if the increase from the 1970's is smaller than in 1950 (since the high activity of the 1990's comes after 5 decades of much higher activity than the 5 decades preceding the 1940's).
- Some of the warming from the 1970's can be anthropogenic. I never thought otherwise. A 50 ppm increase is about 1 W/m^2. For a sensitivity of 1 to 1.5 deg/(W/m2), damped to say half of it over the several decade time scale, CO2 should have contributed about a 0.15 deg increase.
climate
Here is another critical article on the crf climate model. Do you have any comments on the critique? http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/03/cosmoclimatology-tired-old-arguments-in-new-clothes/
Thanks
IE7
Dear Nir,
Unfortunately, your nice website doesn't work with Internet Explorer 7. It shows only the title and nothing else. Only now that I opened Netscape I can see it. Hope you can fix it.
Thanks,
Yevgeny